The wildfire models carriers relied on five years ago are materially underestimating today's risk.
Historical wildfire frequency and loss data was collected during a period of lower fuel accumulation, different development-wildland interface patterns, and a climate baseline that no longer holds. Models calibrated to that history are structurally unable to price current risk accurately.
The rebuilding effort involves integrating satellite-derived fuel load data, high-resolution terrain and wind modeling, ember transport simulation, and structure-level vulnerability assessments based on building materials and defensible space. The result is a fundamentally different risk picture than historical data alone could produce.
Carriers that have invested in next-generation wildfire models are making meaningfully different underwriting decisions in the Western U.S. -- including writing policies that competitors are declining when the granular risk data supports it.
#WildfireRisk #CatastropheModeling #PropertyInsurance #ClimateRisk #PandCInsurance
Prior 